If intra-Afghani dialogues don’t result in ceasefire, would not be welcomed inside the country. These meetings would only be welcomed that at least a guarantee be given on ceasefire and end of war. If there is no guarantee for stopping of violence, intra-Afghan dialogue would be facing public wrath and indignation and then even the participants would be losing their popularity.
The Afghan people are the victim of Taliban violences and suicide attacks. Those people who are living in areas under the domination of Taliban, have been posing risk due to military operations of government troops. The life of women and children who are living in those areas, is being threatened. Due to these reasons, the Afghan people want end of wars immediately.
End of war is imaginable only when the Taliban agree on a ceasefire. The US and NATO have been ready in talks with Taliban to arrange a troops reduction timetable.
But this issue would be only logical that Taliban give a guarantee to end violence and would enter meaningful negotiations with government, political forces and civil society activists.
If there is no guarantee on stopping of violence and meaningful negotiations, even in Kabul no one would welcome withdrawal timetable.
In the areas under the rule of the Afghan government, nobody want the NATO troops to stay here in Afghanistan until the dawn of resurrection day, but people would only welcome withdrawal timetable that there would be a guarantee on ending of violences.
If the withdrawal timetable is arranged but the Taliban don’t agree on a ceasefire, it means that Taliban want to remove the factor of NATO from the scene and then continue the war, in this case it would be clear that Taliban merely want to make peace with NATO not with political forces and citizens of the republic. It frankly implicates continuation of war not effort for peace.
If Taliban sincerely want peace, should agree on no violence and meaningful negotiations. If they continue war and at the same time request withdrawal timetable, it would not help stabilization. Taliban strategic calculation may be this that to remove NATO from the scene somehow, continue war and occupy Afghanistan territory completely. But it would never happen.
History shows that until the Kabul government is strongly and financially supported by a foreign country, it would not collapses Following the withdrawal of Soviet troops all people expected overthrowing of late Dr. Najibullah rule but it did not happen immediately and last three more years.
Collapse of Dr. Najibullah administration was the effect of end of Moscow support. Now even if the NATO troops leave Afghanistan but their financial support continue, the Afghan government would not collapse. There is no reason that NATO member countries fully stop their financial and military support of Afghanistan. If the troops withdrawal timetable is also arranged, ANSDF would continue resistance and in that case Taliban would fail to succeed militarily and the result would be increasing blood shedding, violence and hardships of Afghan people. Agreement on ceasefire and meaningful negotiations is the only solution. We believe that reliable peace would only be achieved that the Afghan people be recognized the owner of political power based on electoral legitimacy.
All political forces should agree on election based political legitimacy and rule of law should be established.
Until we lack rule of law and electoral legitimacy, even if there would be a peace, it would be temporary and fragile. Peace is the desire of the Afghan people and all of us expect our dream to be changed to a visible and reliable reality.